Casselton, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS63 KFGF 051753
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1253 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon.

- Chance for strong or severe storms Thursday afternoon and
  evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Conditions remain quiet early this afternoon. Starting to see a
few cumulus clouds develop over the Devils Lake Basin, with the
other shield of clouds across the south continuing to slowly
erode as drier air works into the area. Updated grids to
capture the latest trends, and blended in latest observations.

UPDATE
Issued at 955 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Final area of showers is now well off to our east, with slowly
clearing skies from northwest to southeast across the FA.Tweaked
cloud cover based on latest trends. Otherwise, forecast remains
on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 643 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Trimmed pops back even more as NBM and models too slow with
moving out the rain. Dry conditions exist in our fcst of
Minnesota. Did leave 20 pop in far southeast (Wadena, Elbow
Lake) in case some very light rain occurs still thru mid
morning. Tweeked sky cover some. Clearing into NE ND at 11z and
overall clearing trend working southeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...Synopsis...

The showers have moved mostly out of our fcst area as of 08z,
considerably faster than model fcst. There are a few showers
that have been dropping south earlier from Devils Lake and are
not in south east ND west of Oakes. A few showers to start the
day in our southeast and far south fcst area but otherwise the
main thing will be the passage of a cold front and behind it
breezy north wind, much lower dew points and cooler
temperatures along with clearing. Expect mostly sunny conditions
most of the area this afternoon. High pressure will build south
into southern Manitoba tonight and then move east Sunday.

500 mb short wave will move east along the Montana/Canadian
border late today into Sunday with chance for showers and
t-storms to our west in Montana and western ND southward. This
wave will move east across the area Sunday night but moisture
with this diminishes and chances for rain is limited to parts of
the Devils Lake basin to Valley City.

...Isolated severe storms possible Mon afternoon...

There is another bit stronger wave that will move east-southeast
from central Alberta Sunday night and into northeast North
Dakota by late Monday afternoon. Sfc CAPE values in the
1000-1500 j/kg range late Monday combined with a bit of a cool
pool at 500 mb due to the wave to produce scattered
thunderstorms. 0-6 km shear is 30-40 kts sufficient for isolated
supercell development. Not anticipating a big event as
instability isnt great, but enough for SPC to but area in a
marginal Risk, esp RRV and MN parts of the fcst area.

Wave moves out Monday overnight with clearing Tuesday.


...Chance for strong or severe storms Thursday afternoon and
evening...

A stronger 500 mb trough and short wave will move thru Canada
Wednesday thru Thursday with low pressure system in northern
Manitoba and a cold front south into central ND at 00z Fri.
GFS/ECMWF indicate 2500-3500 j/kg sfc CAPE into the area
Thursday aftn and 35-45 kt 0-6 km shear which would be
sufficient for organized updrafts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

VFR through the TAF period, with minimal aviation impacts
expected. Winds will gust this afternoon to 20 knots or so,
highest in the Red River Valley. Winds will die off after
sunset, before picking back up again Sunday morning. There could
be a few showers around KDVL Sunday morning, but the
probability is very low at this time. Therefore, made no mention
of showers in the TAF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Rafferty